Conclave set to begin as speculation runs rampant

‘Who’s going to be the next pope?

If the competition were a horserace, here’s what it would look like up to now, through the lens primarily of the Italian press:

German Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger had an early lead, but seemed to lose it on the turn to Cardinal Camillo Ruini, the Italian who is vicar of Rome. Ruini was then outpaced by Cardinal Dionigi Tettamanzi of Milan, who has a reputation for being a moderate.

That reinvigorated Ratzinger, a noted conservative, but also created a tangle that may open a hole in the stretch for a run by Portuguese Cardinal Jose Da Kruz Policarpo, Chilean Cardinal Errazuriz Ossa and Colombian Cardinal Dario Castrillon Hoyos.

Throughout it all Nigerian Cardinal Francis Arinze has remained close to the front of the pack.

The conclave of 115 cardinals that begins Monday to pick a pope is, of course, a very serious and somber occasion and not a horserace. But that hasn’t stopped the handicapping of the likely outcome in the days since Pope John Paul II was buried, even though news accounts have been vague about the sources of their information.’

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